How to increase accuracy in tomato yield prediction

Photos courtesy of source.ag

The limited access to a healthy diet, rising demand for fresh produce and increasingly extreme weather conditions are putting more pressure on growers and necessitating greater accuracy in yield forecasting. However, accurately predicting tomato yield amid fluctuating weather and greenhouse conditions more than a week in advance has proven nearly impossible. At the same time, inaccurate forecasts lead to an inefficient supply chain, where buyers and suppliers are forced to trade at short horizons, resulting in loss of product quality, increased waste, lower profits for growers and higher consumer prices.

Sales teams at grower companies often trade with fluctuating information. They pre-sell between 60% to 80% of the vegetable harvest and spot-sell the remaining volume and surplus, if any. Meanwhile, retailers purchase from multiple growers, wholesalers and cooperatives to lower the risk of supply shortage.

To optimize the value chain efficiency and improve the pricing structure, a highly accurate yield forecast is essential. This is where science and technology join forces to become the grower’s trustworthy copilot to empower millions of growers worldwide to be successful and grow more fresh produce.

The Challenge

Giving growers twice as accurate yield predictions and supporting them in finding the best crop plan is the commitment of Source.ag. Acknowledging that greenhouse growing is a risky business with increasingly extreme weather, market dynamics and crop developments continuously happening in real time, Source.ag takes the risk associated with growing to the virtual world.

When it comes to yield forecasting, every time something unexpected happens, growers adjust their strategy based on experience and gut feeling. This approach is prone to errors, resulting in billions of dollars of economic losses every year, and has an enormous impact on food security.

Reshaping Yield Forecasting

Most growers use one of two common approaches to yield forecasting. They may rely on last season’s data. This requires growers to choose to grow the same variety, start the season at the same time and follow an identical cultivation strategy for expectations to prove to be correct.

Alternatively, growers calculate the new fruit set each week on a sample of plants, estimating the development time frame and an expected harvest date. Based on last year’s fruit weight around the same harvest time, the grower can predict what the expected harvest will be for all fruits.

Both approaches depend on variables like climate, crop strategy, seed variety, humidity and more. Combined with calculation errors, incorrect data and data availability, highly accurate yield prediction becomes a burden.

Fortunately, technologies have come a long way to be able to address the most burning issues and challenges, transforming how growers make critical decisions. By automating complex calculations, Source Cultivate offers unprecedented accuracy that manual methods can’t match. While manual calculations cannot provide the required depth for accurate predictions, the AI-powered solution from Source.ag, Source Cultivate, steps into approximating the development process through models with the available data.

Source Cultivate simulates fruit development and growth, considering critical factors like climate, lighting and crop management, allowing growers to plan with precision. It simulates the season based on the grower’s crop plan choices for climate, artificial light and plant management. It also allows growers to adjust a strategy to simulate the impact of changes on plant balance and yield. This enables greenhouse growers to move the risks to the virtual world and tweak crop plans to maximize results while minimizing risk.

With Source Cultivate, growers can increase the accuracy on yield forecasts by two times, reaching 85% to 90% accuracy up to eight weeks in advance. Moreover, growers can integrate Source Cultivate with internal systems and keep teams constantly informed about forecast updates through the Source API. This will provide the required information to secure the best wholesaling deals and plan for packaging, logistics and labor efficiently.

Learn more about the solution and request a live demo at source.ag.