Sales of horticultural crops set to grow over next decade, says USDA's latest long-term projections

Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022 report, released February 2013

Farm sales of horticultural crops are projected to grow by 1.4 percent annually over the next decade, reaching $71 billion in calendar year 2022, according to the recently released USDA Agricultural Projections to 2022 report.

Additionally, the volume of U.S. farm production of horticultural crops is projected to rise by 0.4 percent annually. Vegetables will lead this growth at an annual rate of 0.5 percent, reaching 131 billion pounds in 2022 as fresh-market production averages 1.6 percent growth, the report states. Fruit and nut production is projected to expand by 0.1 percent per year to 71 billion pounds in 2022 as non-citrus production growth more than offsets citrus production decline.

Producer prices for vegetables are projected to rise 0.7 percent per year due to strong fresh market vegetable production. The report also states that producer prices for fresh fruits rise by 1.8 percent per year due to slower production growth than for vegetables.

U.S. per capita use of fruits and tree nuts is expected to increase from 287 pounds in 2012 to 295 pounds by 2022, an annual average growth rate of 0.3 percent. Per capita use of vegetables initially drops in 2013 due to a smaller potato crop then levels off to an average 406 pounds, according to the report. The total supply of fruits, nuts and vegetables over the next decade, both domestic and imported, is projected to grow at an average rate of 1.1 percent per year.

Other highlights from the February 2013 report include the following:
•    The U.S. trade deficit in horticultural crops and products is projected to expand from $12.4 billion in fiscal year 2012 to $22.1 billion in fiscal year 2022.
•    Imports increasingly supplement domestic production of horticultural crops and products.  By 2022, imports are projected to supply 52 percent of domestic fruit and nut use and 24 percent of vegetable use, in terms of farm weight. In 2012, these shares were 44 percent and 19 percent, respectively.
•    The export market becomes more important for U.S. horticultural producers. In 2022, exports are projected to be the destination for 27 percent of U.S. fruit and nut production, up from 23 percent in 2012, while 21 percent of vegetable production will be sold in foreign markets, up from 16 percent in 2012.
•    The value of U.S. horticultural imports is projected to increase by 4.5 percent annually over the next decade, compared with 8.0 percent on average during the past decade, reaching $64.5 billion in fiscal year 2022 (fiscal 2022 covers October 2021-September 2022). Fruit and nut imports account for $21.3 billion, while vegetable imports account for $15.8 billion.
•    Exports of U.S. horticultural products are projected to reach $42.4 billion in fiscal year 2022.  Of this amount, fruit and nuts contribute $20.8 billion, and vegetables contribute $8.2 billion.

Read the full report by clicking here.